Electoral Model May 2026: The Government and Opposition Blocs Are Holding on to Their Voters. Motoristé Remain the Government’s Weakest Link

Key findings

1) In May, ANO would be chosen by 32.5% of Czech voters. Compared with the elections in October 2025, this is 2 percentage points fewer voters. Support for the entire government bloc (ANO, SPD, Motoristé) has fallen by 3 percentage points since the election (from 49.1% to 46%), indicating that the government bloc is largely holding on to its support.

2) ODS and STAN are still competing for second place, with support of around 14% of the vote. Support for the opposition bloc has remained practically unchanged compared with the October 2025 elections — opposition parties would be chosen by 41.2% of voters (43.6% in October 2025).

3) KDU-ČSL and TOP 09 remain stable at around 2.5–3% of voters. The Christian Democrats will try to reverse this stagnation under their new leadership headed by Jan Grolich.

“KDU-ČSL and TOP 09 have long been hovering around the 3% mark and today stand at a similar starting point — both parties have new, younger leadership and are looking for ways to appeal to a broader electorate. Nevertheless, they have structurally different conditions for success. TOP 09 has significantly higher electoral potential, but over the long term it has been unable to turn voter interest into solid support while competing with the stronger ODS, STAN, and Pirates. KDU-ČSL, by contrast, has the advantage of a more clearly defined voter core and a larger, better-organized membership base. After the break-up of SPOLU, the Christian Democrats therefore have better room for maneuver in reaching new voters, and the task of the new leadership will be to achieve stable support of around 5%,” comments NMS political analyst Tereza Friedrichová.

 

Electoral model results

The ANO movement maintains a clear lead in May. In a hypothetical election, it would receive 32.5% of the vote. ANO’s voter core stands at 19.1%, while its potential reaches 37.3%. The confidence interval ranges from 28.8% to 36.1%. In May, ANO continues to draw its strongest support from voters aged 65 and over.

“The balance of power between the government and opposition blocs remains similar in May to the October elections. The new Naše Česko project has not yet managed to significantly change the dynamics either. The party system remains fragmented. If elections were held now, there would still be approximately one fifth to one quarter of voters who would likely remain unrepresented in the Chamber of Deputies,” says Tereza Friedrichová.

ODS would appeal to 14.8% of voters in May. The party’s core stands at 5.9% and its electoral potential at 21.7%. The confidence interval is 12.0% to 17.5%. Since February, ODS has been achieving results similar to STAN and remains ahead of it in the notional race for second place.

STAN would appeal to 14.5% of voters in May. Compared with similarly strong parties, its voter core is low — 3.7%. Its potential, however, reaches 25.8%, partly because STAN is acceptable to a large share of voters from other opposition parties. The confidence interval is 11.8% to 17.3%.

SPD would appeal to 8.7% of voters in May, with its support increasing by 1.3 percentage points compared with April. Its core consists of 3.6% of voters, while its potential reaches 13.8%. The confidence interval is 6.5% to 10.9%.

The Pirates would receive 6.7% of the vote in May. The party’s voter core is 2.4%, while its potential reaches 14.8%. The confidence interval is 4.8% to 8.7%, meaning that if elections to the Chamber of Deputies were held now, the Pirates would not be certain to enter it.

Motoristé sobě would receive 4.8% of the vote in May and, for the second month in a row, would not reach the 5% threshold in the NMS electoral model. With a confidence interval of 3.2% to 6.5%, the movement is hovering just around five percent — as with the Pirates, it is not possible to say whether it would enter the Chamber of Deputies. Its core is 1.6% and its potential reaches 8.4%.

“When we ask respondents in the survey whether anything in politics has pleased or disappointed them over the past month, and if so what, a large share of answers mention disappointment with Motoristé. This includes dissatisfaction with specific representatives (Petr Macinka, Filip Turek) or with general policy areas (public service media). Some voters continue to be dissatisfied with Petr Pavel, but compared with dissatisfaction with Motoristé, this is approximately half as frequent. In general, people in recent months have perceived disappointment primarily through specific personalities rather than through the policies promoted by their parties,” adds Friedrichová.

Naše Česko would reach 2.8% of the vote in May. The confidence interval is 1.5% to 4.1%, the core is 0.6%, and the potential is 7.5%. The movement continues to draw on disappointed voters across the party spectrum.

KDU-ČSL would reach 2.7% of the vote in May. Its core is 0.5% and its potential is 7.8%. The confidence interval is 1.5% to 4.0%. TOP 09 would receive 2.5% of the vote in May. The party’s core is 0.9% and its potential reaches 10.9%. The confidence interval is 1.3% to 3.7%. Both parties have maintained stable support of around 2.5% since February.

KSČM would receive 2.3% of the vote in May. Its core is 0.9% and its potential is 4.6%. The confidence interval is 1.1% to 3.4%.

Among the other parties, none exceeded 2% in May. The strongest among them are the Greens with 1.6%, PŘÍSAHA with 1.3%, and SOCDEM with 1.1% of the vote.

Estimated voter turnout in May is 62.3%.

Electoral model results within the confidence interval

The measured results are within the confidence interval with 95% probability. The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points for parties with support above 20%, and +/- 1.7 percentage points for parties with support around 5%.

 

Voter core

The voter core indicates the percentage of voters who are firmly decided to vote for a given party.

 

Electoral potential

Electoral potential indicates the maximum percentage gain a political party could achieve if all voters who are at least considering the party actually voted for it. In the chart, electoral potential is shown by the upper figure, while the lower figure indicates the party’s support in the electoral model.

 

Support trend

 

Electoral model methodology

Data was collected online in the National Sample panel from April 30 to May 5, 2026. The sample is representative of the Czech population aged 18 and over. A total of 1,022 respondents participated in the survey. The sample is weighted using multidimensional weighting according to the following categories: gender, age, region, size of municipality, education, and vote in the 2025 Czech Chamber of Deputies election.

When interpreting the results, it is necessary to bear in mind that these are results of hypothetical elections that would take place in the week following data collection.

Detailed methodology of the NMS electoral model can be found here.

Contact for media

Tereza Friedrichová, NMS, [email protected], +420 733 610 461

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