Electoral Model June 2026: ANO maintains its lead. STAN surpasses ODS for the first time

Key findings

1) In June, ANO would be chosen by 31,6 % of Czech voters. Compared to the October 2025 election, this represents a decline of 2.5 percentage points. However, the governing bloc as a whole (ANO, SPD, Motoristé) is broadly maintaining its support — approximately 45% of voters would back it.

2) STAN has overtaken ODS for the first time, claiming second place with 14.8%. The gap between the two parties (0.9 p.p.) falls within the margin of error and cannot be statistically confirmed. The opposition bloc as a whole would receive approximately 41% of the vote.

3) Naše Česko would receive 3.9% of the vote. The party has a potential reach of 7.6%, yet its core electorate is virtually non-existent.

“Since the parliamentary elections, STAN has been steadily closing the gap with ODS. In recent months the party has been visible both in the media and on the floor of the Chamber of Deputies during the vote on the Deputy Speaker. It has also benefited from continuity in its leadership — Vít Rakušan is a well-known figure, and the party has been consistent for its voters since the start of the year. ODS finds itself in a somewhat more complicated position — it changed its leadership, and its former and new chair are, at least in media terms, locked in a quiet contest for the attention of journalists and voters alike. ODS has also lost its dominant standing in the opposition following the break-up of SPOLU, which, at least in optics, weakened the party in voters’ eyes. The opposition landscape is therefore very much open,” comments NMS political analyst Tereza Friedrichová.

 

Electoral model results

The June NMS model captures the political scene in relative calm. No party recorded a shift exceeding the margin of statistical error, and the overall ranking remains unchanged.

ANO holds a commanding lead over the other parties with 31.6% support. Compared to May, this is a decline of just under one percentage point, which falls within the confidence interval. The movement’s core electorate stands at 19.7%, with a potential reach of 35.2%. ANO continues to retain over 80% of its 2025 voters — the highest retention rate among all parties.

STAN records 14.8% in June, a slight gain of 0.3 percentage points. For the first time in the NMS electoral model, the Mayors have overtaken ODS, which had until now led the opposition. The party’s core electorate remains small (4.1%), while its potential is relatively high at 24.3%. STAN draws its support predominantly from former SPOLU and Piráti voters.

“STAN has overtaken ODS in the NMS electoral model — a trend that other agencies noted some months ago. Even so, ODS remains in a strong position. STAN is a typical second-choice party: it tends to show high potential in the models, and sometimes high overall support too. That support, however, tends to be overstated by the fact that many voters are simply considering it. If we look at how many voters are genuinely convinced they would vote for the party right now, it is only 4.1%. For ODS, that figure is nearly 7%,” adds Friedrichová.

ODS sits just below STAN at 13.9% (interval: 11.3–16.6%). A year-on-year decline of 0.8 percentage points falls within the confidence interval. ODS’s core electorate stands at 6.8%, with a potential of 21.7%.

SPD has declined to 7.5% (interval: 5.5–9.5%). The drop of 1.2 percentage points compared to May is the largest single-party movement of the month; nonetheless, given the confidence interval, it cannot be definitively established whether this reflects a genuine shift in voter preferences or is simply a random fluctuation in the data. SPD’s core is 3.6%, its potential 12.7%.

Piráti have improved to 7.4% (interval: 5.4–9.4%). The gain of 0.7 percentage points is a movement within the margin of statistical error. The party’s core electorate stands at 2.3%, with a potential of 13.5%. In June, 60% of Piráti’s 2025 voters continue to back the party.

Motoristé sobě have strengthened to 5.8% (interval: 4.0–7.6%). A gain of 1.0 percentage point compared to May likewise falls within the confidence interval. The party’s core is 2.7%, its potential 9.3%. Even so, approximately one third of Motoristé’s 2025 voters are considering voting for another party in June.

Naše Česko rises to 3.9% (interval: 2.4–5.4%). The party has added 1.1 percentage points since May, yet remains below the 5% parliamentary threshold. It nonetheless maintains noteworthy support heading into the summer. The party’s core is virtually non-existent (0.2%), while its potential stands at 7.6%.

“By founding the party, Naše Česko captured a sizeable share of media attention in the Czech Republic — attention that has translated into fairly solid support in the NMS electoral model, and all of this without any major campaign, ideological positioning, or sustained follow-through on the initial coverage. Despite a relatively strong showing in the model, the party has an extremely thin — or effectively non-existent — core electorate. The figure in the model therefore reflects initial voter curiosity and interest in the party rather than any genuine consideration of voting for it at a future election,” analyses Tereza Friedrichová.

TOP 09 stands at 3% (interval: 1.7–4.3%). A gain of 0.4 percentage points moves it slightly closer to the parliamentary threshold, though the confidence interval indicates the party remains in a zone of statistical uncertainty. Its core is 1.0%, its potential 10.7%.

KSČM and KDU-ČSL are both hovering just above the 2% mark at 2.4% each. KSČM edged up by 0.2 percentage points (interval: 1.3–3.6%), while KDU-ČSL slipped by 0.4 percentage points (interval: 1.2–3.6%). Both movements fall within the confidence interval. KSČM’s core electorate is 1.0%, its potential 4.2%; KDU-ČSL’s core is 0.6%, its potential 5.4%.

The remaining measured parties — Zelení (1.3%), PRO (1.1%), Přísaha (1.0%), SOCDEM (0.8%), Svobodní (0.7%) and Trikolora (0.3%) — remain below the 2% mark.

Estimated voter turnout is 64%.

Electoral model results within the confidence interval

The measured results are within the confidence interval with 95% probability. The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points for parties with support above 20%, and +/- 1.7 percentage points for parties with support around 5%.

 

Voter core

The voter core indicates the percentage of voters who are firmly decided to vote for a given party.

 

Electoral potential

Electoral potential indicates the maximum percentage gain a political party could achieve if all voters who are at least considering the party actually voted for it. In the chart, electoral potential is shown by the upper figure, while the lower figure indicates the party’s support in the electoral model.

 

Support trend

 

Electoral model methodology

Data was collected online in the National Sample panel from June 3 to June 8, 2026. The sample is representative of the Czech population aged 18 and over. A total of 1,035 respondents participated in the survey. The sample is weighted using multidimensional weighting according to the following categories: gender, age, region, size of municipality, education, and vote in the 2025 Czech Chamber of Deputies election.

When interpreting the results, it is necessary to bear in mind that these are results of hypothetical elections that would take place in the week following data collection.

Detailed methodology of the NMS electoral model can be found here.

Contact for media

Tereza Friedrichová, NMS, [email protected], +420 733 610 461

About the agency

NMS is a research agency with over 20 years of history. In addition to market research, which it provides to hundreds of clients worldwide, it also studies political and social issues. In addition to the Czech Republic, it operates in other countries in Europe and Asia. NMS is a member of the international organization ESOMAR and the national organization SIMAR.

Please refer to the agency in the media as follows:

• Research agency NMS
• NMS agency
• NMS

Please avoid using the full company name, i.e. NMS Market Research.