Election data without shortcuts: what we measure, how we measure it, and what it means
A voting intention poll captures who people would vote for if an election were held at the time of fieldwork. An election model goes further: it works with likelihood to vote and certainty of choice (and, for undecided voters, also considers alternative options they are still weighing) to describe the balance of power more realistically at that moment. The key is transparent methodology—representative sampling, quality control during data collection, weighting, and clear interpretation of results.
Quick summary:
- We measure the “state right now”—not a prediction of the future.
- We can deliver voting intentions or a full election model (including handling undecided voters).
- We build on representativeness and rigorous quality checks.
- We combine data collection methods (online / in-person / phone—based on your brief and target group).
- The output is not just numbers, but also commentary and context (“what is changing and why”).
- We provide materials for media publication and for internal campaign decision-making.
What you get in practice
- Clear numbers + interpretation — you don’t just get a table. We explain what is changing, by how much, and what it means in the context of trends.
- Voting intentions and an election model — we measure “who they would vote for” and can also produce a model that works with turnout and certainty of choice.
- Controlled fieldwork quality — representativeness, control mechanisms, and strict standards are not an add-on. They are the baseline.
- The right method mix for the objective — online, in-person and other combinations. We choose what fits the target group and the interpretation (not “one method for everything”). For method detail, you can reference quantitative research and online research.
- Materials for publishing and decision-making — we format outputs so they work for an article, press release, and internal campaign planning.
What benefits this delivers
We track current support for parties, candidates, or coalitions—and what is truly changing over time (trend vs. one-off fluctuation). Based on the objective, we deliver either voting intentions alone or an election model—always with clear interpretation so it’s obvious what follows from the results and what the limitations are.
This is especially useful if you need to quickly verify the impact of events (a debate, a scandal, a candidate change, a political decision), or if you want regular measurement and to steer decisions based on trends rather than random spikes. It also helps shape communication: which issues resonate and what actually moves voter segments. For broader context on public mood, see Public opinion research.
Who benefits most
- Media & newsrooms — regular measurement, clear charts, commentary, and methodological transparency (what, when, how).
- Political parties / candidates / campaigns — decision support, narrative testing, and mood monitoring.
- Public administration, institutions, think tanks, NGOs — attitudinal mapping of society and evidence to support public argumentation (closely related to Public opinion research).
Outputs you can use immediately
- Summary report (PDF / presentation): results + interpretation + key trends.
- Charts and tables ready for publication (in multiple formats if needed).
- Data export for internal analytics (aggregated data and overviews—by agreement).
- Methodology card (one-pager): target group, fieldwork dates, method, sample, weighting, wording of key questions—exactly what makes outputs credible.
- Short executive summary for leadership or spokespeople (what to say publicly and what to watch out for in interpretation).
Questions and answers
Is a voting intention poll the same as an election model?
No. Voting intentions show who people would vote for. An election model also works with likelihood to vote and certainty of choice (and, for undecided voters, considers alternative choices they are still weighing).
Is it a prediction of the election result?
No. It captures public mood at the time of fieldwork (“if the election were held now”). For interpretation, trends matter most.
How do you ensure representativeness?
We build a representative sample and use control mechanisms and fieldwork quality standards. For public outputs, it’s essential to state the method, fieldwork dates, and sample parameters.
How do you work with undecided voters?
For the election model, we also ask about other options respondents are considering and factor in certainty and willingness to vote. This helps describe the real balance of power more accurately.
How quickly can the research be delivered?
It depends on the election type, target group, and data collection method. The point is to choose an approach that protects data quality while delivering results when they are still relevant.
What exactly will we receive as an output?
Typically: a report with interpretation, charts/tables ready to use, and a methodology card (fieldwork dates, method, sample, weighting, wording of key questions).
Who is it for—media, or political stakeholders as well?
Both. Media use results to inform the public; political stakeholders use them to measure and steer campaigns and communication.
