Electoral Model April 2026: ANO Remains the Clear Hegemon. STAN, Not ODS, Is So Far Benefiting From the Break-Up of SPOLU

Key findings

1) ANO remains firmly in the lead with 32.7%. It draws support mainly from voters aged 65 and over.

2) The former SPOLU coalition is lagging behind — by a simple sum, it would receive 19.5% of the vote in April. After the coalition’s break-up, ODS has so far failed to establish a more dominant position among the other parties.

3) Since February, STAN has been close behind ODS — the party benefits especially from the high support it receives from the youngest voters in the post-election period.

“The break-up of SPOLU has left the opposition without a leader. ODS is not yet able to take on the role of opposition leader — it is being held back by internal disputes between the current and former chair, as well as among members of the party leadership. ODS is still looking for the direction it wants to take, and the transfer of power from Petr Fiala to Martin Kupka is not going well. STAN and Naše Česko, both of which have clear leaders, are benefiting from the situation in ODS. However, neither of these two parties has a clear vision either. As a result, only around one fifth of STAN voters are certain about choosing the party,” analyzes NMS political analyst Tereza Friedrichová.

Electoral model results

The ANO movement further consolidated its lead in April. Compared with March, it gained 1.2 percentage points and would receive 32.7% of the vote in a hypothetical election. ANO’s voter core is 22.1% and has also increased compared with the period before the 2025 Chamber of Deputies election. Its potential reaches 37.7%. The confidence interval ranges from 29.1% to 36.3%. In April, ANO again draws its strongest support from voters aged 65 and over.

ODS would appeal to 13.9% of voters in April. The party’s core stands at 5.5% and its electoral potential at 22.2%. The confidence interval is 11.3% to 16.6%. Around half of former SPOLU voters from October 2025 are currently considering ODS. The party’s strongest support is among voters aged 45 to 54.

STAN would appeal to 13.7% of voters in April. Compared with similarly strong parties, its voter core is low — only 2.8%. Its potential, however, reaches as high as 24.3%, partly because STAN is acceptable to a large share of voters from other opposition parties. The confidence interval is 11.1% to 16.3%. In April, STAN would be chosen by approximately one third of the youngest voters aged 18 to 24.

The Pirates would receive 8% of the vote in April. The party’s voter core is 2.9%, while its potential reaches 14.6%. The confidence interval is 5.9% to 10.0%. The party appeals mainly to voters under 44.

SPD would appeal to 7.4% of voters in April. The party’s core consists of 3.8% of voters and its potential reaches 12.2%. The confidence interval is 5.4% to 9.4%. The party draws its highest support from voters aged 45 to 64.

Motoristé sobě would weaken to 4.4% of the vote in April. Compared with March, the movement dropped by 2.7 percentage points — the largest month-on-month decline among all monitored parties. With a confidence interval of 2.8% to 6%, Motoristé are hovering just around the five-percent threshold. The movement’s core is 1.6% and its potential reaches 7.7%. In April, support for Motoristé comes mainly from Czechs aged 35 to 44. Before the Chamber of Deputies election, support for Motoristé was driven mainly by age groups 18 to 34, which are now represented somewhat less.

Naše Česko would reach 4.1% of the vote in April. The confidence interval is 2.6% to 5.6%, its core is 0.5%, and its potential is 8%. The movement continues to appeal to voters across the political spectrum — drawing from disappointed voters of both government parties (ANO, Motoristé) and opposition parties (STAN, SPOLU, Pirates).

KDU-ČSL would reach 2.5% of the vote in April. The party’s core is 0.9% and its potential is 5.7%. The confidence interval is 1.3% to 3.7%. TOP 09 would receive 3.1% of the vote in April. The party’s core is 0.4% and its potential reaches 11.9%. The confidence interval is 1.8% to 4.4%. Neither party would enter the Chamber of Deputies — even the upper bound of their confidence interval does not cross the five-percent threshold.

KSČM would receive 2.8% of the vote in April. The party’s core is 1.5% and its potential is 4.1%. The confidence interval is 1.6% to 4.1%.

Among the other parties, none exceeded 2% in April. The strongest among them are the Greens and PŘÍSAHA, both with 1.4% of the vote, and SOCDEM with 1% of the vote.

Estimated voter turnout in April is 63.7%. Compared with the actual elections in October 2025, this represents a decrease of 5.3 percentage points.

Electoral model results within the confidence interval

The measured results are within the confidence interval with 95% probability. The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points for parties with support above 20%, and +/- 1.7 percentage points for parties with support around 5%.

 

Voter core

The voter core indicates the percentage of voters who are firmly decided to vote for a given party.

 

Electoral potential

Electoral potential indicates the maximum percentage gain a political party could achieve if all voters who are at least considering the party actually voted for it. In the chart, electoral potential is shown by the upper figure, while the lower figure indicates the party’s support in the electoral model.

 

Support trend

Electoral model methodology

Data was collected online in the National Sample panel from April 1 to April 7, 2026. The sample is representative of the Czech population aged 18 and over. A total of 1,031 respondents participated in the survey. The sample is weighted using multidimensional weighting according to the following categories: gender, age, region, size of municipality, education, and vote in the 2025 Czech Chamber of Deputies election.

When interpreting the results, it is necessary to bear in mind that these are results of hypothetical elections that would take place in the week following data collection.

Detailed methodology of the NMS electoral model can be found here.

Contact for media

Tereza Friedrichová, NMS, [email protected], +420 733 610 461

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